Namibia warned of hotter, drier rainfall season as El Niño strengthens
Namibia is heading into the 2026/27 rainfall season under a heightened risk of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures, with the Namibia Meteorological Service warning that strengthening El Niño conditions could affect the country in the coming months.
The warning covers the period from October 2026 to March 2027, when regional climate models indicate a strong possibility of reduced rainfall and unusually high temperatures across Namibia.
According to the Namibia Meteorological Service, El Niño conditions have intensified significantly since early 2026. Sea surface temperature anomalies reached 1.8°C by the second week of August, after rising from 0.5°C during the April–June period.
Global climate prediction centres are forecasting that the El Niño event could strengthen further, potentially exceeding 3.0°C and reaching the “very strong” category.
The Meteorological Service said historical observations and local studies show that El Niño events are generally associated with reduced rainfall in Namibia, while La Niña conditions tend to bring wetter conditions.
The current climate pattern is also considered similar to the 2023/24 rainfall season, which the service says could provide a useful reference for agricultural planning, disaster preparedness and water-resource management.
The public and key sectors are urged to closely follow weather updates as conditions develop. The Namibia Meteorological Service will continue monitoring the situation and issue updated monthly seasonal forecasts, while short-term and weekly weather forecasts will also be provided to support planning.
The advisory was issued on 3 September 2026 by the Namibia Meteorological Service under the Ministry of Works and Transport.
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