NAMIBIA’S FUEL CRISIS: ARE WE SUFFERING ONLY FROM GLOBAL OIL SHOCKS, OR ALSO FROM A LACK OF STRATEGIC ENERGY PLANNING?
By Edward S. Tjihinga
The latest fuel price announcement should concern every Namibian, not just motorists.
Effective Wednesday, 4 November 2026, petrol prices will increase by N$2.00 per litre, while diesel prices will increase by N$3.00 per litre. This is a substantial increase at a time when households are already struggling with the cost of living and businesses are battling rising operational expenses.
The consequences will extend far beyond filling stations. Transport operators, farmers, manufacturers, retailers and ordinary consumers will all feel the impact. When the cost of moving goods increases, the pressure eventually finds its way into the prices paid by consumers.
But while international oil prices, shipping costs and exchange-rate movements are legitimate factors in determining fuel prices, an important question deserves to be asked:
Are we doing enough, as a country, to reduce our dependence on external fuel markets, or have we become too comfortable reacting to international developments instead of preparing for them?
THE PROBLEM IS BIGGER THAN THE PRICE AT THE PUMP
Namibia is a net importer of refined petroleum products. This means that despite our geographical position, natural resource potential and growing ambitions in the energy sector, we remain exposed to developments in international fuel markets.
We cannot control geopolitical tensions, international oil prices or shipping disruptions. However, we can make strategic decisions about where we source our fuel, how we negotiate procurement agreements and what investments we make to strengthen our energy security.
This is where leadership and long-term planning become important.
A government should not only respond when fuel prices increase. It should anticipate vulnerabilities, explore alternatives and develop strategies that protect the economy against recurring external shocks.
ANGOLA: AN OPPORTUNITY WE SHOULD TAKE SERIOUSLY
One question that deserves serious consideration is our relationship with Angola.
Angola is one of Africa’s major oil-producing countries. It has significant petroleum resources and is developing the Lobito Oil Refinery, which is designed to process approximately 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
More importantly, during President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah’s state visit to Angola in October 2026, Angolan President João Lourenço invited Namibia to consider becoming a shareholder in the Lobito refinery.
This presents an opportunity that should not be treated as an ordinary diplomatic announcement.
Why should Namibia not seriously examine the possibility of investing in this refinery, negotiating long-term petroleum supply agreements and strengthening bilateral cooperation in the downstream petroleum industry?
Of course, there is an important distinction: Angola produces crude oil, but that does not automatically mean it can supply Namibia with cheaper refined petrol and diesel today. The Lobito refinery is still under construction, with completion targeted for 2029.
Furthermore, even when the refinery becomes operational, cheaper fuel will not be guaranteed. The economics of production, financing, transport, export pricing and distribution will determine whether Namibia benefits.
Nevertheless, these are opportunities worth investigating rather than waiting until another international crisis exposes our vulnerabilities.
STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP MEANS THINKING BEYOND THE NEXT PRICE ADJUSTMENT
It would be unfair to suggest that government has done absolutely nothing.
The Ministry of Industries, Mines and Energy has introduced changes to bulk fuel procurement. For the November 2026 to January 2027 period, TotalEnergies was selected through a competitive bidding process to supply approximately 345.3 million litres of fuel.
The successful bid reportedly offered discounts of 71 cents per litre on petrol and 61 cents per litre on diesel, with estimated savings of approximately N$220.5 million.
That is a development worth acknowledging.
However, the question remains: are these procurement interventions sufficient to address Namibia’s long-term vulnerability?
Competitive procurement can reduce supplier premiums, but it cannot independently eliminate international product-price increases, exchange-rate pressures and shipping costs.
We therefore need a broader strategy.
Namibia should seriously consider:
- Regional energy partnerships: Strengthen petroleum cooperation with Angola and other regional producers and suppliers.
- Strategic refinery investment: Examine the commercial viability of acquiring an equity stake in the Lobito refinery and other regional petroleum infrastructure.
- Long-term supply agreements: Explore arrangements that can improve supply security, procurement predictability and negotiating power.
- Strategic fuel reserves: Assess whether our national storage capacity is sufficient to protect the country against prolonged supply disruptions.
- Transparent procurement: Ensure that fuel procurement decisions are competitive, accountable and deliver measurable benefits to consumers.
- Consumer protection: Develop sustainable mechanisms to cushion households and productive industries against severe fuel-price shocks.
These should not be treated as isolated policy ideas. They should form part of a coherent national energy security strategy.
WHEN FUEL PRICES INCREASE, THE COST OF LIVING FOLLOWS
The biggest concern is the wider economic impact.
Diesel is particularly important to Namibia’s productive economy. Trucks transport food, agricultural produce, construction materials and essential goods across the country. Farmers depend on fuel for machinery, irrigation and transportation. Businesses depend on fuel to move products and maintain operations.
When diesel increases by N$3.00 per litre, the cost implications for transport-intensive businesses can be significant.
Those costs can eventually contribute to higher food prices, more expensive services and increased pressure on household budgets.
Of course, fuel prices are not the only determinant of inflation, and cheaper fuel would not automatically force every business to reduce its prices. Nevertheless, reducing fuel-related costs could provide meaningful relief across several sectors.
The question is therefore not merely how much more motorists will pay at filling stations. It is how much more ordinary Namibians will eventually pay for their daily necessities.
WE NEED LEADERSHIP THAT ANTICIPATES, NOT ONLY LEADERSHIP THAT REACTS
Namibia cannot insulate itself completely from international economic developments. No responsible government can promise that fuel prices will never increase.
But there is a difference between experiencing external economic shocks and remaining structurally vulnerable to them.
We have diplomatic relationships, regional economic opportunities and an emerging petroleum industry. We should be asking how these advantages can translate into tangible economic benefits for ordinary Namibians.
The invitation from Angola to participate in the Lobito refinery should therefore trigger serious economic and policy discussions. It should not end as another diplomatic headline.
We need to know whether government intends to pursue this opportunity, what the potential investment would cost, what benefits Namibia could secure and how such an arrangement would strengthen our national energy security.
Leadership is not measured only by how government responds when a crisis arrives. It is also measured by the decisions it makes before that crisis arrives.
Namibia needs an energy strategy that looks beyond the next month, the next fuel-price announcement and the next international disruption.
Our economy cannot afford to remain permanently reactive.
The time has come to move from managing fuel-price increases to building long-term energy security.
The question is no longer simply why fuel keeps becoming expensive. The bigger question is: what is our long-term plan to ensure that Namibia is not perpetually at the mercy of external fuel markets?
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